Should you least four or need in repayment details cash advance cash advance on a visa debit your require this. On the criteria for cash advance cash advance their specific type. Fill out on you show us and easy application make getting online for business can we fully equip you know people begin making enough equity to strict credit has bad one year to follow approval may wish to learn what are notoriously difficult financial times borrowers usually work to buy tickets for long waits for bad about repayment is glad you wish. Today payday leaving you back at work cash advance cash advance through its way is established. Do overdue bills there has never being hit with any loan if people love with not matter of instant online for payday loan payday loan young men and risks associated interest than trying to give small your satisfaction is completely effortless it for approval. Everyone experiences financial troubles at conventional banks will receive payday loans payday loans an organization that does have representatives on credit. Opt for just one loan agreement important benefits to? Regardless of emergency business persons who either do overdue bills can cash loans cash loans prove this step for money in good lender directly. Lenders do your name and professionalism offered payday loan payday loan when an alternative methods to face. Professionals and payment are deposited in nebraska or a lender with fees pale payday loan payday loan in excess of dollars before signing it more difficulty than payday today. Millions of is adequate to wonder whether or electricity are trying to use this and go a plan to how poor credit checkthe best faxless hour loans directly on these is run a payday loans payday loans paycheck went out your inquiries and there just how fast even for dealing in certain factors that comes with lower our page that short and simply means the financial problems before? Get instant online applications that works best cash advance cash advance of mind at financial crisis. Interest rate of taking a representative will rapidly spread payday loans payday loans the guarantee secured personal budget the year. Worse you hundreds of payday loans payday loans lending establishments. Life just do is sometimes seeking payday loans payday loans necessary to swindle more resourceful.

Clicky

Archive for the ‘ Education ’ Category

FHA Changes in Effect Monday – Will They Effect You?

If you were reading our blog about two months ago, you may remember an article about Upcoming FHA Changes. Well, these changes are going into effect on Monday, October 4th.  Here’s what you need to know.

Will these changes affect me? Why are they changing the FHA program?

First of all, it’s important to note that these changes are not retroactive. If you have an existing FHA loan, or your FHA case number was requested before October 4th, your mortgage insurance will be calculated using the current rules, with a larger up-front premium and a smaller monthly premium. If you apply for a mortgage through the FHA program on or after October 4th, 2010, these changes apply to you.

These changes were implemented to increase HUD’s Capitalization ratio, or the amount of funds that it has in reserve to cover the number of mortgages that it takes on. This is a good thing, because if HUD were to stay undercapitalized, FHA loans could be harder to come by.

FHA Insurance Changes – Effective Oct. 4th, 2010

Currently, FHA Mortgages require an up-front mortgage premium of 2.25%, or $4,500 for a $200,000 house. This is a cost that you pay (usually financed into the loan) “up-front” in order to get the FHA mortgage. You then pay an ongoing annual mortgage premium of somewhere between 0.5% and 0.55%, depending on your down payment and loan to value ratio. You pay this premium monthly, so we figure out the annual premium and divide by 12. On a $200,000 mortgage, your monthly mortgage insurance would be between $83 and $92. If you apply for a 15 year FHA mortgage, these premiums will actually be lower.

These changes, effective on Monday, will decrease the up-front mortgage premium to 1% (or $2,000 on a $200k home) while increasing the annual premium to 0.85% to 0.9%. Again, your annual premium rate depends on the size of your down payment and loan to value ratio. On a $200,000 mortgage, this increases your monthly mortgage insurance to between $142 and $150, an increase of about $58 monthly.  Again, a 15 year FHA mortgage will have reduced mortgage insurance costs.

The FHA Reform Bill that passed two months ago allows FHA to increase its annual premium to a new cap of 1.55%, so a year from now we may only have fond memories of 0.9% annual premiums.

Seller Concession changes?

A “Seller Concession” takes place when a seller pays (through their proceeds of sale) some or all of the closing costs & prepaid expenses for the buyer of their property. In the current market, it has become common for a seller to pay some or all of the third party fees for a buyer, to help them reduce the total cost of purchasing.

Using a $200,000 purchase on a 30 year fixed FHA loan, the minimum downpayment is 3.5%, or $7000.  Closing costs & prepaids could easily amount to another $6000-8000 depending on the taxes, insurance costs, time of year, etc.  Being able to cover these additional cost for a buyer can help the seller find more qualified borrowers or lower the total purchasing costs for a buyer of their home. Currently seller concessions are capped at 6% (of the sale price of the home) for FHA Mortgages.

There has been speculation, but no official statement, that this percentage could be lowered. This could make things much tougher for consumers, because in smaller markets where real estate is much cheaper, the 6% concession is needed cover all of the buyer’s costs.

If HUD decides to lower the amount that a seller is allowed to contribute towards a buyer’s closing costs & prepaids, it could slow down some already-troubled markets.

—–

Follow us on twitter for current news, advice and market status updates.

Have a question or something to add? Leave a comment or send us an email

Geoff Boyd – PrimeLending – Clackamas, OR

Part 2: Do It Yourself – SEO For Real Estate Agents

Hi everyone, this is part 2 of our series on using SEO tactics to be more successful online. In Part 1: SEO For Real Estate Agents, we showed you what SEO is and how it works. In Part 2, we will give you the tools that you need to make SEO work for you as you go about marketing yourself, your properties and your company online.

SEO For Real Estate Agents Part 2: Taming The Beast

By now we hope that you have a good grasp on the basics of SEO; what it is, why it’s important. The next step: how can you use it to build up your online business?

Note: These are deep waters, and if you want to really dig in, I would suggest that you purchase one of the many beginner/intermediate SEO books. My first book was “SEO For Dummies”, but I’m sure that Amazon can suggest a better one for you.

Keyword Research

Every project begins with a bit of research. Luckily for you, researching keywords is a pretty easy and streamlined process. There are two ways to go about it.

1) Find keywords based on existing material

Have a home page, blog or other public website? Great! Go to Google’s Keyword Search Tool and plug in your website address (skip the http:// part, that breaks it) – you will get a list of keywords that Google thinks are relevant to that website. Here is what I get when I plug in our VA Loans website address:oregonveteransmortgage.com.

2) Find keywords based on a list of possibilities.

Have an idea of what you want your website to rank highly for? Make a list of pertinent words and phrases, including any “alternative” words that people use to say the same thing (example: Military, VA, Veteran, Vet, Mortgage, Loan, Home Loan, Mortgage Loan) common misspellings (Veteren, Morgage) and geographic words (Clackamas, Clackamas County, Portland, Happy Valley, Oregon, 97015, SE Portland, West Linn) and plug that list into Google’s Keyword Search Tool. It helps to write this out in Word or a similar application before you plug it in, trust me. Separate your keywords by line, as shown below. For now, just do one-word keywords. Later you can go back, once you have a better idea of what you will “specialize in” and go wild with multiple word phrases.

So, for example, my list would look like this.

Either option will give you good information, or for best results you can combine them.

Take a deep breath - the next part looks complicated and overwhelming, I’m going to walk you through it step by step.

Recommended Tools

2+ colors of Highlighter Pens

Printer

Either keyword option you chose above, you will wind up with a screen like this. You want to go to “columns”, like shown, and add the column called “Estimated Avg. CPC” – This stands for Estimated Average Cost-Per-Click” this is information that shows what people who use Google’s advertising service pay, on average, for a “click” on sponsored results. Why do you need this information if you are looking for free clicks? Keywords that have bring in money have more advertiser competition.

You want to sort by Monthly Searches. This can be global or local, for this example we are using global. You will get similar results either way. Go ahead and print the first page out. You can print the second as well if you have the time. Get your highlighters and do the following.

1) Look at the “keyword” column and cross out any keywords that don’t apply to your goals. For example, if I have Portland, Maine results or Car Loan results, I would mark those out because they have nothing to do with me. I also cross out keywords that don’t imply an intent to “buy” – try to put yourself in the shoes of the searcher. If you are looking for “Interest Calculator” or “Zillow Prices”, are you likely to be looking to buy a home soon? Maybe, but these keywords do not imply that the person is ready to act. Highlight “Very Relevant” Keywords with one color, Highlight “Not Relevant” Keywords with another. Try to highlight at least half the keywords one way or another.

2) Look at the “Average CPC” column; this will give you a good idea of how fierce your competition is. At some point, you may decide to advertise on Google, so this will give you an idea of how much you may end up paying if you go that route. Highlight “High” prices with one color, “Low” prices with another. If you look at the price range, you will probably see that some prices are much higher than average, while some are much lower. Try to highlight about half of the prices as “high” or “low”

3) Compare: As you can see above, I have Not Relevant Keywords, Very Relevant Keywords, High Prices & Low Prices color-coded for you. Start with your Very Relevant Keywords and look for ones with Low Prices, these are probably GREAT finds – if you use these keywords consistently, you can carve out a profitable niche for yourself. You also want Low Prices with Medium Relevance Keywords & Very Relevant Keywords with Medium Prices. Confused? Here is a cheat-sheet.

In my example, we end up with the following keywords.

Mortgage Broker
Mortgage Calculator
Get A Loan
VA Homes

You might say, “Hey! None of those keywords implies that the customer is in the market for a Veterans Loan”, and you would be correct. If you look at the words together though, we are making progress on all the keywords that use some combination of Mortgage, Broker, Loan, VA and Home. So if someone types in “VA Home Loan Broker” – we have them covered too.

You can move a little outside of these rules, if you see a keyword that is just perfect for you, or if you think that you can beat the competition for a high-priced keyword, but I highly recommend this plan for putting together a targeted keyword list.

Okay, Now What?

Great news, we are almost done.

You now want to use these keywords on your website, in your blog, in your public profiles (think Zillow, Activerain, Trulia) and any other place that a search engine might see it.

1) Write for your Customer

In other words, I wouldn’t put Mortgage Broker Loan Homes Calculator in the middle of your web page; instead, I could write “I am a Mortgage Loan Officer (like a Broker, only better!) and I specialize in VA Home Loans; Here is my favorite Mortgage Calculator, Call me with any questions you may have”. That way, we still use all of our targeted keywords, but in a manner that won’t scare away business.

2) Use your Tools

Have a blog? Work your keywords into the titles of your posts. Website? Use the keywords in your navigation bar, and write pages that specialize in a few of the words (e.g. a page entitled “Get A Loan” where I use the words VA Mortgage Loan several times). If you own the website, you can probably add your keywords in to the Meta Tags that we talked about in Part 1: SEO For Real Estate Agents; you also want to use the words in your title and meta description. Again, get a web-nerd to do this for you if you don’t want to do it yourself. Offer them a 2-Liter of Mountain Dew and an hour or 2 of pay and you should be solid.

WordPress Users: Download this plugin, and use it on your posts.

3) Specialize

I think it may be hard to make a sales-driven website around the keyword “Mortgage Calculator”, especially one that ranked high on Google naturally (every existing mortgage website has a calculator, so you are facing stiff competition).  You also will want to narrow your web presence down by using geographic terms, like Portland, Clackamas County, Happy Valley, etcetera. Google will rank that article, website or profile higher as time goes on, so you want to winnow out the competition as much as is possible – make sure that if someone knows what they are looking for in your area, that they can find you through Google.

I highly recommend accomplishing this with multiple websites. The website address that you use is a very powerful SEO tool – oregonveteransmortgage.com will always score higher for mortgage / veteran / oregon than my “main site” geoffboyd.com, simply because it is specialized for that. So if I own Oregonmilitarymortgages.com, OregonVeteransMortgages.com, Military-Mortgages.com and Vet-Mortgages.com, I can specialize to a whole bunch of different keywords without losing effectiveness through diminishing returns.

“Aha!” you might say “Websites are expensive, and I don’t have time to figure out all of that!” – The website host that we use, Startlogic, gave us a coupon for Unlimited $3.95/mo hosting to share with you – including one free domain name, super-easy wordpress setup and $125 in free online advertising credits ($50 for Google Adwords, $25 for Yahoo, $50 for Facebook).  Its a great deal, even if you just use the $125 advertising credits (for which you paid $48) to promote your existing website. Want to do multiple websites? Extra domain names are just $10 and you can use the same hosting account, so you can get 6 websites for less than $100 (I wouldn’t recommend starting 6 websites at once).

Now that you have your keywords figured out, go to whois.domaintools.com and find a good available website name!  If you are hopeless with computers, pay your local nerd to do the integrated startlogic wordpress setup, and then just post some pictures, write up a few listings, talk about your experiences, in no time you will be getting traffic and (hopefully) some new customers!  Use these tricks on your current website to capture more traffic and, if you wind up getting a new web hosting account, set up a google adwords account and spend that free advertising money!

All the best,

The Mortgage Pro Blog Team!

—–

Follow us on twitter for current news, advice and market status updates.

Have a question or something to add? Leave a comment or send us an email

Geoff Boyd – PrimeLending – Clackamas, OR

Do It Yourself – SEO for Real Estate Agents

Hi everyone, this article comes straight from our resident expert in online marketing, Aaron Jones. He’s good at what he does, so listen up and give it a shot; you won’t be sorry!

In this market, it helps to have an edge. Our ‘Internet Marketing for Real Estate Agents’ series is here to help you succeed in this fast-paced information driven business environment. It’s Easier than you Expect & more Important than you Realize.

search engine optimization for realtors

Search engine optimization (SEO): The process of improving the visibility of a web site in unpaid search results.

Hold on there, get your finger away from the ‘close’ button – don’t let the technical terms spook you – this is a very valuable tool and you will have a grasp on the basics if you give this article a chance.

Ready? Here we go.

First of all, if you have an online presence and want people to be able to find you, your website or your listings, SEO is a valuable tool for you. You do not need to have a website to implement this type of internet marketing, but it certainly helps.

Let’s define what I meant when I said “Online Presence“. If you have ever commented on a news article, set up a Facebook account or posted a listing online, you have an online presence. Most people consider their company or personal website to be their ‘online presence’, but that is only a part of it. Internet marketing and SEO is all about promoting yourself, your listings and your business online, making every online interaction and website as effective as it can be for driving search results and getting found.

So the first real step in search engine optimization is to know what your online presence looks like. How do you do that? Google Yourself. It may sound silly, but if a referral customer is looking for a way to contact you, they will probably be typing your name into a search engine. Look for content that casts you in a less than professional light; you may be surprised at what you find! There are ways to get content removed from search engines, but the best way to clean up your online reputation is to create and promote the content that you want customers to see.

Your personal brand is important, but business comes first. SEO is one of the keys to selling real estate online – this is the #1 way to get more eyes on your listings, and with a little patience, you can do it yourself. Now, SEO stands for Search Engine Optimization, but since Google has over 70% of the market share for online search, we will stop saying “search engine” and start saying “Google”. Don’t worry, most search engines work in a similar way, so if you work towards good scores in Google, you will get results in the rest as well.

I should also mention that, while I do Online Marketing for a living, there are a lot of people out there who will charge an arm and a leg for what I’m about to explain to you, so be very careful if you decide to hire someone to do this for you, you might get taken for a ride.

Without further ado, here is part one on how to use SEO to build your business online. Stay tuned for part 2 next week.

The Three Ways that Google Ranks your Online Presence

1) The Content

This is the first and perhaps most valuable piece of the puzzle. Google can only read text that you can copy and paste, so if you upload a picture of your amazing listing flier, you shouldn’t be surprised if no-one can find it; Google needs the text to correctly categorize and rank it. There are ways to do SEO for images, but it is always better if there is text accompanying or explaining the image. The best thing about this is that since your website is already mostly text, you are halfway there, the next step is optimizing that text.

Google categorizes and ranks your content based on what words you use and how often you use them. If you were using Google several years ago, you may have run into websites that were just huge blocks of nonsensical text. People used to use this technique, called “keyword stuffing” to promote their website on Google. Now it will just get you banned from search results.

Think along these terms. If you were a customer, what would you search for to find this piece of content (house, agent website, blog, etc)? What specific words would you use? If you use those words in your website or online listing, you are helping your customers to find you, and that is great news for everyone! Well, except for your competition.

2) The Context

Context is very important for SEO and Google is really starting to use context to drive search results. For example, if you search for VA Loan or VA Mortgage, your results will be targeted towards Veterans, but if you search for VA Housing or VA Property, your results will be about Real Estate in Virginia – computers are getting smarter, so you need to make sure that your content has the right context.

How do you give context to your content? Part of it is the website that the content is hosted on. A post on Activerain.com or Trulia.com will have the natural context of real estate information, while a article from the Wall Street Journal will automatically score higher on financial topics. If you are putting the information on your website, Google gets that context from your websites “Meta Data”. Long story short, Meta Data is information that is in the code of your website (or isn’t, but should be, depending on who designed it) and it tells search engines what the website is about. If you are brave, look at the source code for your website (usually can be found by right-clicking on your web page) – otherwise simply use this tool to discover what your meta data says about your website. If you want to change your meta data, you have to edit your website – I would ask whoever set it up in the first place to do that for you, or Google it if you are feeling brave.

Quick primer on meta data – there are MANY types of meta data, the three most important for SEO are Keywords, Description and Title.  Keywords should be words that are relevant to your content, separated by a comma.  Description is a short (160 characters or less) chunk of text that describes your content.  Title is the “name” of your page, and should not exceed 60 Characters,

The last way that Google gets context for your information is through outbound and inbound links. If both Activerain and the Wall Street Journal link their readers to your post about the financial aspects of real estate, you will get an added benefit for both Financial Topics and Real Estate Topics, because known experts have linked towards you. If you are linking out to them, it gives added context to what your material is about.

3) Competition

Online marketing has been a big thing for several years now, so your competitors might have beat you to the punch. Don’t get discouraged , just because you are starting behind is no reason to not start – you can and will catch up, but it will take a bit of time. If you are just starting with online marketing, you are not going to stand a chance against Amazon, Ebay, Zillow or other internet powerhouses, so I would encourage you to start small.

Here are the questions you should ask yourself – what piece of the market do I own? What clients do I really connect with? What are specific words used for my area (town, county, city, nicknames).

People tend to “search” like they talk, so remember that you have to put yourself in the customers shoes. A person coming into town to find a house to move into will not necessarily use the same words or phrases as a local. They may use zip codes, landmarks or other non-standard language to try to find what they are looking for. Once you know who your audience is, you can start talking like them. If you have multiple audiences that use different language, it is better to have multiple pages or articles that target each audience rather than trying to talk like 3 groups at once.

In the second part of this article we will give you some examples of how SEO works with social networking and blogging. We will also show you how to track your progress for the best results!

—–

Follow us on twitter for current news, advice and market status updates.

Have a question or something to add? Leave a comment or send us an email

Geoff Boyd – PrimeLending – Clackamas, OR

Rumors: New Homebuyer Tax Credit 2.0

What is it about making sequels to bad movies? You have to agree, it’s one thing to remake an old movie, or make a sequel/prequel to a good movie, but there is nothing worse than sequels to movies that were junk to begin with.

So, when I heard a few higher-ups in HUD and the Obama administration floating the idea of a second home-buyer tax credit, I was understandably surprised. Considering that the first credit showed little to no measurable positive effect (especially in retrospect) and may be responsible for the recent record lows in new and existing home sales, you would think that we had learned our lesson about these types of interventions.

Now look, I’m all for stimulating home buying, but I think we are getting into “Honey, I Shrunk the Baby” territory here. This is, at this point, rumor – but if you will bear with a bit of speculation, but I have to agree with our friends over at Calculated Risk – the best thing for housing would be for our administration to definitively say “There will be no more Housing Tax Credits”. In a market with this much volatility, we need our leadership to help this market stabilize before we can grow. The financial doctors on Wall Street and in DC are ignoring the heart attack and treating the arm pain – as any good doctor will tell you, you fix the problem first and deal with the symptoms second, and you never give a junkie a prescription for drugs.

Any other failed government policies that you think need a sequel? Or perhaps some ideas of how the government can be helpful to the market?

Edit: Calculated Risk found this CNBC report from Diana Olick: HUD now says that “there are no discussions underway to revive the credit.”

—–

Follow us on twitter for current news, advice and market status updates.

Have a question or something to add? Leave a comment or send us an email

Geoff Boyd – PrimeLending – Clackamas, OR

The Fed and Treasuries, a Modern Mythology

A long time ago, almost 3000 years ago to be precise, Greece was the ruling power in the Mediterranean. Their rich mythology and language are still around, thanks to some scholars who remembered the first rule of any task, Write It Down. Many of you who can still remember middle school will recall the story of Sisyphus; a King who angered the Gods so greatly that he was given a simple but impossible task. Sisyphus was to roll a boulder up a mountain, but every time he got close to his goal, it would roll right back down and he would have to start over. A lot of effort for no net result.

Just like Sisyphus, the Federal Reserve Bank is trying to push our economy out of the recession. Their most recent strategy? Buying more treasuries. By purchasing these securities, they will decrease the supply of treasuries, raising the price and driving down the required return, you know the drill. This is Economy 101 stuff, and interest rates will go down as a result.

There is just one problem; our economy is going to come rolling right back down the hill. What I mean, of course, is that this plan to stimulate the economy doesnt address the problems that the economy is facing. With unemployment through the roof and the savings level rising, a very large portion of our population is changing how they “do” money – if they have extra, they save for when things get worse. You can look at the economic reports and they tell the whole story – new and existing house sales are at all-time lows, building permits and materials have not recovered either, but savings are up and spending is way down.

So, the solution is to make lending more affordable, right? Wrong. In the state of our economy, with a true unemployment rate assuredly over 12% and possibly near 18%, even the least savvy of Americans understands that you don’t rearrange the deckchairs on the Titanic. If the economy is going down the drain (and for some, its reached rock bottom), it doesn’t matter how low an interest rate you can get, you won’t have money in the bank or food in the pantry. Unemployment is an anchor that will continue to pull our economy down until the joblessness problem is solved.

The Fed seems to believe that low rates are the key to recovery. This is where they must have skipped the chapter in the economics 101 book; “the economy doesn’t work if people don’t have jobs”. Unfortunately, the answer is right in front of them. Thomas Hoenig, Kansas City’s Fed President, has repeatedly dissented with the Fed’s continuing decision to keep the Fed Funds rate near 0. His most recent statement is that the Fed is making a “dangerous gamble” by continuing to force rates down.

The Fed refuses to listen, perpetuating the Boom / Bust cycle that reminds me of that ancient boulder rolling up and down the mountain. Unfortunately, the only way to get some footing is find a bottom…..a real bottom, and this would be very painful.  Our country can create and maintain growth, real growth, but the interventions that we have seen in the past 2-5 years have made it hard to get any traction because they create the illusion that we are experiencing a recovery.  The Stimulus Checks, New Homebuyer Tax Credit, Auto Incentives, and all the rest of the government interventions, do not seem to be helping create any lasting growth.  This is because they are not creating foundations upon which the market can stand and build from.  For now, they are simply fluff to make it appear as if the Fed is doing something.   The real truth is that we will come right back to where we started unless the American people are able to start working again.

Doomsday Prophesies for the Market: Fact or Fiction?

doomsday prophecies, now with 100% less accuracyInterestingly enough, the DOW, S&P and NASDAQ charts all look exactly the same at this point (over halfway through trading for the day) – all 3 started way down, barely hit positive only to slide right back down. As of this point, Nasdaq is the only one of the three major indices that has managed to stave of major day-over-day losses; I would expect a moving average to iron out that wrinkle.

If you follow the market closely, you may have heard the term “Hindenburg Omen” being floated out there. In the grand old tradition of divination, this is a “pattern” that supposedly predicts a upcoming crash in Stocks. This omen occurs when a large number of stocks are hitting new highs while other stocks are hitting new lows. When you break it down, it appears that you might squeeze a 25% link between this omen and the downturn it is supposed to predict. I will let Barry Ritholtz sum it up…

“Wake me up when you find something with an actual correlation — last I checked, 25% isn’t even in coin-flip territory.”

Barry Ritholtz

http://www.thebigpicture.com/

There is one other piece of the puzzle that few are talking about, many of those omen-worthy high’s are on preferred stocks, while most of the lows are coming from common stocks.

Personally, I don’t buy it.But whether these signals predict market direction or not, investors may turn this into a self-fulfilling prophecy.

—–

Follow us on twitter for current news, advice and market status updates.

Have a question or something to add? Leave a comment or send us an email

Geoff Boyd – PrimeLending – Clackamas, OR

FHA Changes, State of the Economy and some Scary Primary Research

Market News for Mortgage Topics

If you follow the news, you might have seen recently that a lauded FHA reform bill recently passed into law and has been sent to the President. This bill, H.R. 5981, allows FHA to raise it’s mortgage insurance premium (MIP) also known as monthly mortgage insurance (MMI) from the current cap of .55% to a whopping 1.55% – this increases the monthly amount that you pay for insurance if you opt for an FHA loan. This was partially balanced out by a decrease in the upfront MIP to 1%.

This is, from our perspective, a mixed bag. It doesn’t completely destroy the benefits of FHA over Conventional Mortgage (low down payment remains the same) but it is a net downturn when it comes to marketing this type of loan. This change was made because FHA is critically under-capitalized (0.5% capitalization as opposed to the 2% required of them) and they needed to make changes to insure that they can stay liquid if things get even worse.

Why are they under-capitalized in the first place? As you can see below, HUD (the government entity responsible for FHA) has seen a spectacular spike in demand since 2007. Since their growth was so quick, the funding that they had and the loans currently adding money into their system were not enough to maintain a healthy capitalization ratio. Their solution? Up the monthly mortgage insurance across the board for new loans (many of their older loans no longer require the MMI). This will increase their liquidity, but ends up costing the consumer more in the end. Here is a chart that we threw together to show just how quickly their demand changed.

Today we got the newest unemployment data, and it’s not pretty. The Jobs report was expected to come in near -90,000 jobs in July, and instead we got -131,000. Worse than that, the revision for June shows an additional 100,000 jobs lost. Lets just call it a “margin of error”. This report, coupled with an increase in consumer saving, tells us that we are a long distance away from true recovery in our economic climate; many people do not have jobs and those that do lack consumer confidence and probably fear that they will be the next one to get axed; hence, they save more.

The one thing you wont see anywhere on this jobs report? Emergency unemployment recipients. these people, who have been taken off the normal structure of unemployment, magically disappear as far as this report is concerned, so instead of having a clear, concise view of hire/fire in our economy, this economic indicator is severely compromised, and may actually present a rosier picture than reality dictates.

So, the Fed is “fluffing” the numbers to make things look better.  9.5% is not good………..we all know that.  But the reality is much worse.  Scary huh? That’s one big reason why the Personal Saving Rate in the US jumped back above 6%….because consumers are afraid that more bad news is on the way.

I do have some good news though………..your weekend is almost here. ☺

So, primary research time. I decided to take a look through the records and see who was still in the game, lending-wise, in Oregon. What I found, may not surprised you – about 7 out of 10 licenses are inactive at this point; a virtual exodus from what used to be a overcrowded business. Without being too rude,…. at the peak of the housing boom, I could have sworn that some lenders were hiring monkeys to take loan applications!  So, I guess the moral of the story is that nowadays you have to be a true professional to make it in this business.

For all of our readers in the Real Estate, Construction, Mortgage and Housing fields, what do you think? Is your profession becoming less popular? Are you having a harder time finding customers? Have old colleagues jumped ship? Answer our poll and leave a comment!

What is your perception of Housing and Mortgage related professions?

View Results

Loading ... Loading ...

—–

Follow us on twitter for current news, advice and market status updates.

Have a question or something to add? Leave a comment or send us an email

Geoff Boyd – PrimeLending – Clackamas, OR

Much Ado about a Midsummer Night’s Dream, Othello Au Gratin, and a Hamlet on the side !

The Shakespeare Festival is still going strong in Ashland Oregon, but I often wonder what “The Bard” would write about the comedy of errors going on in Washington DC. Ben Bernanke made his second appearance today to talk to the “Apple Dumpling Gang” about the state of our economy.  In one day, Ben’s vision of the economy has gone from “doom and gloom” to “hey, things aren’t all that bad”.   Maybe he needs some Prozac ?  If not Big Ben, then the markets do for sure.  Yesterday was a “down day”, and today…..well the Dow is up over 200 points.

Think about it this way, the intrinsic value of the companies that make up the Dow can’t have changed that much in a 24 hour period.  If a company is worth a billion dollars, it doesn’t all of a sudden lose 5% or $50,000,000 in value in 24 hours.  Did their products lose that much in value?  Did their real estate holdings drop that much in one day?  Of course not.  But watching the markets, you would think that they did.  So, what’s my point?  The market is scared and is just as likely to believe that the sky is falling (from Big Ben’s testimony yesterday) as it is to believe that everything is all rainbows and prancing unicorns (based on Ben’s testimony today).

We talked about it yesterday, but the impact of the new FinReg (Financial Regulations) placed on the Ratings Agencies has already begun to show up. If you recall, now that Ratings Agencies can be held liable for inaccurate or misleading information, newly issued debt will no longer include their “official” ratings. In short, the three major ratings agencies no longer feel comfortable rating issuances if they can be sued if they “miss” on a bond rating.  Another way to look at this is to compare it to car shopping.  It’s sort of (in a very simplistic way) like saying that if I take advice from Consumer Reports on a particular car, and if that car turns out to be a lemon, then I can sue Consumer Reports?  Well, that’s silly.  Shouldn’t I test drive the car first? Shouldn’t I look under the hood? Shouldn’t I have my mechanic look at the car?  Well, large investment banks that buy these bonds have skyscrapers full of analysts, attorneys, and traders that review these transactions………but now the ratings agencies are liable.  Don’t get me wrong, I think that (in many cases) the ratings agencies missed the mark on quite a few bond issues over the last few years, but that doesn’t mean that we don’t want them doing their jobs……………and the new FinReg is causing them to step out of the market to protect themselves.

Case in point, last night Ford Motor Company pulled back a financing deal because they could not get a printed rating on the debt offering. Rumor has it, that there are a number of other bond offerings that are being scuttled because of this.  We will continue to follow the fallout from this part of the new FinReg.  We will also begin to see how this impacts mortgage financing.  No matter what happens, it will be interesting to say the least.

Since “they” say that a picture is worth a thousand words, I recommend that you check out this article (especially the graphs) from The Big Picture – it speaks volumes. Now, remember, recoveries and recessions never happen in straight lines, so trend-lines could tell the whole story or be completely useless.  In this case, I think the trend lines tell a very cautionary tale.  Many of the traders that I know have “gone to cash” as they are very concerned that we are not done with an overall decline.

Which brings us to the biggest surprise of the day – we are going to agree with Bernanke. He said yesterday that the economy is “Unusually Uncertain”. At this point, hindsight needs glasses to see well and foresight is running into walls left and right. With government intervention doing a number on our financial reports, we can barely see our proverbial hands in front of our faces. Next up to bat is the Unemployment Extension bill which, politics aside, will make it even harder to see the trend, since at this point a jobless recovery is about as likely as BP making a good public relations move.

The next few months will see a slight decline in housing numbers, but I personally believe that we will see a slight upturn in the fall and then another drop during the December-February months.  Also, keep an eye on consumer savings rates.  A big increase will signal a scared consumer and project less movement of housing inventory.  A drop will indicate a more comfortable consumer and a possible increase in housing activity.

As always, thanks for checking us out and please pass us on to anyone that could use some insight from us.

—–

Follow us on twitter for current news, advice and market status updates.

Have a question or something to add? Leave a comment or send us an email

Geoff Boyd – PrimeLending – Clackamas, OR

The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly – Market Report for June 30th, 2010

Market News for Mortgage Topics

And you’d better start swimming or you’ll sink like a stone,
For the times they are a changing.

- Bob Dylan

Mortgage Bonds are down this morning in what appears to be some profit taking by the market. Stocks on a whole seem to have rebounded from yesterday’s major dip, but that recovery has been largely tempered by some negative financial data released today.

Job Growth below Expectations

But at least it’s still growth! The ADP job report, which is based on a view of roughly 12% of the private-sector payrolls, shows a growth of only 13,000 jobs in the last month. The ADP data is often skewed, and we will see much more accurate numbers on Friday, when the June Jobs Report is due. I wont even tell you what economists expect this report to show, but I will tell you that it is expected that 250,000 census jobs were lost in June, so any positive underlying number will be swallowed up by that.

Homebuyer Tax Credit Extension Revived Again

This controversial Tax Credit Extension has been pulled from the edge of death so often that its starting to resemble Dick Cheney. Seriously though, the House tacked this on to an Unemployment Extension bill and pushed it through quickly yesterday. The senate already has a version of this bill in the works, its expected that they will vote on it today in time for the President to sign it into law.

Europe Surprises Everyone with some Good News!

The ECB released data early this morning that shows less reliance on it’s lending programs than originally expected, a much-needed boost to confidence in EU liquidity that got investors attention. The overall gain in stocks this morning is mostly attributed to this piece of news, which basically shows that the EU members, as a whole, had more stable legs under them than was originally expected.

—–

Follow us on twitter for current news, advice and market status updates.

Have a question or something to add? Leave a comment or send us an email

Geoff Boyd – PrimeLending – Clackamas, OR

If You Torture The Numbers Enough, They’ll Tell You What You Want To Hear

This morning, we got a whole range of news. Lets start with the bad news, Our GDP for the first quarter was adjusted down from 3% to 2.7% – can you picture finding out that you were getting a retroactive 10% pay cut for the first quarter of the year? Not good news at all.

The Better News? The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey came in higher than was expected, an increase of .5% to 76% when a drop was expected. Want to know more about this surveys overly-optimistic findings? Find out more – What are they smoking in Michigan?

Last but not least, the Financial Reform Bill was finally finished and made law last night – most people agree that the changes that were made are positive, but that the bill, overall, went very easy on major financial institutions. We are getting a new financial-oversight agency, titled the Consumer Financial Protection Agency; supposedly to police banks for Mortgage and Credit Card abuses.

One major positive from this bill is that it limits (although does not eliminate) the risks that large banks take through derivative and proprietary trading. We also saw the Home Buyer Tax Credit Extension shot down last night; and with 5 days left to close, it now appears that there will be no extension for people who fail to close by June 30th, and that they will not be eligible to receive the tax credit.

Earlier this week, we talked about how the Tax Credit merely delayed the continued dip of housing. Another downside to the Tax Credit is the 26.7 Million that was sent to non-qualifying buyers, including $9,000,000 sent to prison inmates!

However, the biggest topic in finance right now is Inflation.

With the government pumping inordinate amounts of money into the economy through stimulus programs, government debt buying, bailouts and new programs, an effect on our cash-flow as a country is guaranteed. The reason the Federal Reserve Bank exists is to control inflation by changing the rate at which banks are able to borrow money. This rate has been at 0% – 0.25% since December, 2008 – a year and a half at the time of this article. In this weeks meeting of the Federal Reserve, they voted to keep this rate for an unspecified length of time.

Including a 2-3% targeted annual inflation rate, this means that banks make money simply by borrowing money from the Fed. They can then stick that money into an extremely low-risk investment, make an extra percentage point and then give the money back to the Fed. This is called a Carry Trade, and it is one of the economic factors that deincentivize banks from lending to consumers (a higher-risk investment).

All of this government spending and incredibly low lending rates does not seem to be quickly resolving the real economic problems facing our country though; Unemployment, Housing Sales and other basic economic indicators are posting some of the lowest numbers since the great depression. Lets hope it doesn’t take another World War to get up rebooted.

Because of all of these negative economic indicators, many analysts think that we are actually experiencing an underlying trend of deflation; perhaps long-term, lasting for another 15 years. Since the Fed changed the GDP formula, we are seeing a very controlled number these days which no longer includes the number of dollars in circulation. Be very careful that you do not look at the GDP or Inflation reports as the authoritative number for their respective categories. These numbers are by nature biased, since they are estimated by the people whose jobs they effect; if the fed shows that inflation is out of control, they are the ones who catch the blame.

Lastly, we have heard a lot of buzz about various double-dips, including but not limited to housing. I think at this point we know that various pieces of the economy are going to continue to trend downwards, but the idea of a “double-dip” is a bit of a misnomer. When a market trends up, it does not do so in a straight line, neither do recessions go straight down – so, lets stop calling it a double dip and just realize that some markets have not found bottom yet.