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The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly – Market Report for June 30th, 2010

Market News for Mortgage Topics

And you’d better start swimming or you’ll sink like a stone,
For the times they are a changing.

- Bob Dylan

Mortgage Bonds are down this morning in what appears to be some profit taking by the market. Stocks on a whole seem to have rebounded from yesterday’s major dip, but that recovery has been largely tempered by some negative financial data released today.

Job Growth below Expectations

But at least it’s still growth! The ADP job report, which is based on a view of roughly 12% of the private-sector payrolls, shows a growth of only 13,000 jobs in the last month. The ADP data is often skewed, and we will see much more accurate numbers on Friday, when the June Jobs Report is due. I wont even tell you what economists expect this report to show, but I will tell you that it is expected that 250,000 census jobs were lost in June, so any positive underlying number will be swallowed up by that.

Homebuyer Tax Credit Extension Revived Again

This controversial Tax Credit Extension has been pulled from the edge of death so often that its starting to resemble Dick Cheney. Seriously though, the House tacked this on to an Unemployment Extension bill and pushed it through quickly yesterday. The senate already has a version of this bill in the works, its expected that they will vote on it today in time for the President to sign it into law.

Europe Surprises Everyone with some Good News!

The ECB released data early this morning that shows less reliance on it’s lending programs than originally expected, a much-needed boost to confidence in EU liquidity that got investors attention. The overall gain in stocks this morning is mostly attributed to this piece of news, which basically shows that the EU members, as a whole, had more stable legs under them than was originally expected.

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Geoff Boyd – PrimeLending – Clackamas, OR

2010
06/30
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Mortgage Rates on the Rise, Likely to Jump Again before Day-End

This week’s record-low mortgage rates might have been long-gone by the time most of us woke up this morning.

In a show of support for the shaky (at best) European economy, China announced this morning that it would not be reviewing its holdings of European debt (~2.5 Trillion). Not only is this announcement out of character for China, it shows confidence in a sector that few have shown optimism for.

This show of confidence in Europe’s financial future has investors moving even further away from the safety of Bonds and focusing on stock purchases. This immediate shift in the market, coupled with yesterday’s pessimism at the five-year bond auction, has begun to push mortgage rates up. As the day progresses, these two factors alone could raise rates by a minimum of 12 to 25 points.

The ten-year Treasury Bond is often hailed as the great indicator for mortgage rates – but you can’t believe everything you hear. This morning, the 10-year Bond change was almost double that of the 30-year market. You made some mistakes this morning if you expected the mortgage market and the ten-year bond to move at the same rate.

The impending seven-year Treasury Bond auction is going to be the kicker for today – Our expectation is that as demand for bond cools, today’s bond auction will drive mortgage rates even higher.

-    Mortgage Pro Blog;    Geoffrey Boyd;    PrimeLending Clackamas OR

2010
05/27
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Rate Advisory – 10/01

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